Elite 8 Preview: No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
2010-03-30
The No. 3 seed Baylor Bears vs. the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils game will takes place on Sunday, March 28, 2010 tip off at 5:05 p.m. eastern time, televised on CBS. This final Elite 8 match up will decide the winner of the South Regional bracket in this year’s 2010 NCAA Tournament, and put the winner in an automatic spot in the NCAA 2010 Final Four.
Baylor will obviously have the edge in fan support on Sunday playing in their home state of Texas, but the Blue Devils have history on their side. Also, they have reached the Final Four in five of the eleven times they have entered the tourney as a No. 1 seed.
Baylor was a 5 point favorite at www.sportsbook.com, in the game and easily covered the spread in a 72 - 49 rout of the Gaels. The Baylor Bears held St. Mary’s to an embarrassing 17 points in the opening half and held an astonishing 46 - 17 lead at the half.
The Blue Devils also had an easy time in the Sweet 16 against the Purdue Boilermakers. Duke busted the Boilermakers 70 - 57 as an 8.5 point favorite. That improved the Duke Blue Devils to 3 - 0 against the spread in this year’s NCAA Tourney.
Coahs K’s team did it with defense, holding the Boilermakers to just 37 percent from the field and they only made 4 - 15 from behind the arc. Even though Duke played good defensively, the Boilermakers are not the same team it was before losing Robbie Hummel and had only three starters and five total players score in the game. The Blue Devils dominated the glass, grabbing 11 more offensive rebounds than the Boilermakers.
Duke doesn’t figure to be able to dominate the boards the same way against a Baylor team that is big up front and very athletic. The key to pulling off the upset for Baylor will be to keep Duke off the glass, and to hold Kyle Singler in check. When Singler isn’t scoring points, or when he’s taking a lot of shots to get his points, the Blue Devils are susceptible to being upset.
The Baylor Bears have a veteran bunch that packs an inside outside game with their guards LaceDarius Dunn, who scored 23 points against St. Mary's, and Tweety Carter, who also added 14 points and 3 - 6 for three point shots. On the inside playing either the forward or center position Ekpe Udoh, a junior who transferred from Michigan. Udoh's a beast of a player this season and has elevated his draft stock while helping the Baylor Bears out of the first round of this year’s NCAA Tourney. With a talented backcourt and a solid interior presence, Baylor will be a tough team to beat, Duke has their hands full.
www.sportsbook.com have the Duke Blue Devils 5 point favorites and the over / under at 140 points. I’m going for the upset with the Baylor Bears, they will play the inside outside type of game on Sunday and with their size and athleticism they will be too much for the Duke Blue Devils.
CBB: Don’t forget about the NIT, CIT, & CBI Brackets2010-03-12We all know the big draw at this time of year is the “Big Dance”. All of the best teams are there, playing in high profile games in high profile arena’s across the country over the next few weeks. However, the serious bettor might take a greater liking to the action in the NIT, CIT, and CBI tournaments if he or she chooses to analyze them. Sportsbook.com will of course be your home for all the action on these games. Follow the daily lines on the LIVE ODDS page.
The games in those tournaments are nothing more than glorified non-conference games, with the higher seeded teams playing at home in most cases. As such, the handicapper gets to apply many of the same strategies that they have been perfecting since the tip-off of the season some four months ago. With the thought of building our bankrolls for the main event, let’s take a look at the recent action in the undercard tournaments to see if we can uncover some winning information.
CollegeInsider.com Tournament
2010 marks the second annual CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT) featuring another 16 deserving teams who didn’t get the opportunity to play in the NCAA or NIT Tournaments. The CollegeInsider.com Tournament competes with the CBI Tournament for teams. Teams are seeded and games are played on campus sites, including the championship, with a single-elimination tournament format. In the inaugural edition of the tournament last spring, no power conference schools were included, and perhaps the most well-known teams came from the Missouri Valley Conference.
In any case, here are some of the things that happened in the 2009 CIT tournament, from a betting perspective.
- Old Dominion won the tournament championship, beating Bradley on the road. The Monarchs were 3-1 ATS in their four tournament games.
- Home teams were 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS in the CIT tournament in ’09, with every single one of them playing as a favorite.
- OVER the total was 8-6-1 in the 15 CIT games last year.
- There were distinctive breaks in the relationship between the pointspreads and the home team success last year. In CIT games with lines of -9 or more, home teams were 2-0 SU & 0-2 ATS. In games with pointspreads of 3-points or less, home teams were 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS. In between, they were 6-1 SU & ATS.
- Despite being the biggest name conference in the CIT tournament last year, Missouri Valley teams Bradley, Drake, and Evansville combined to go just 1-5 ATS.
- Only one first round road team pulled an upset last year (Belmont at Evansville), with hosts going 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS.
College Basketball Invitational Tournament
This year marks the third annual College Basketball Invitational and the tournament website claims the 2010 CBI is shaping up to be “even more exciting this year.” The CBI has a similar format to the CIT, 16 teams, seeded in four regions, with each game in the first three rounds played at home arenas in a single elimination format. However, the two teams eventually reaching the championship play a best-of-three series with the higher seed hosting two games should a third be necessary.
Last year, Oregon State and UTEP played for the CBI championship. After Oregon State won the first Championship Series game in Corvallis, the scene shifted to El Paso, where UTEP took the second game of the series before Oregon State emerged as CBI champs with an 81-73 road victory.
Tulsa won the ’08 championship, beating Bradley, 2-1 in the finals.
Here are some betting trends that have formed in the first two years of the College Basketball Invitational Tournament:
- Home teams were 23-11 SU but just 15-19 ATS in the CBI tournaments of ’08 & ’09. Both marks represent declines from the success of the CIT hosts.
- The CBI has been a high scoring tournament to date, with OVER the total owning a mark of 20-11-3 in the first two years.
- First round CBI games have proven highly competitive with the home teams owning a 9-7 SU edge but visitors having covered the pointspread in 11 of 16 games.
- Fortunes turn in round two of the CBI, with home teams having won seven of eight games while going 5-3 ATS.
- Favorites of 6-points or more in the first two CBI tournaments have gone 9-3 SU but 3-9 ATS.
- Home favorites of less than 3-points are an imperfect 0-5 SU & ATS in the CBI tournament over the last two years, while home underdogs are 3-0 SU & ATS.
- Power conference teams, or the “Big 6” are 9-5 SU & ATS in the CBI tourney, negating any preconceived notion that they don’t care about these second-rate tournaments. Pac 10 teams are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS, not counting the game in which Oregon State and Stanford went head-to-head last March.
- “D”-level conference schools (Ivy, Southern, MEAC, America East, etc) are 4-0 ATS.
- In 18 past CBI games with totals posted at 140 or higher, OVER the total is 12-3-3.
National Invitation Tournament
The National Invitation Tournament, better known as the NIT, has been around since 1938 and is the longest running postseason college basketball tournament. The NIT is twice as big as the CIT & CBI in terms of teams, with 32, and only recently did it start seeding teams in four distinct regions on the bracket. The first three rounds are all played at home team sites, before the semifinals and finals are played at historic Madison Square Garden in New York. The last two NIT champions have come from the Big Ten Conference, Penn State and Ohio State.
Here’s a look at the betting story in the NIT, dating back to the 2007 tournament, the first going back to the current format of 32 teams.
- Home teams have gone 13-3 SU in each of the last three years of first round NIT action. In the two most recent years, the ATS split was 8/8 between home & road teams. In 2007, the visitors held a 9-7 edge.
- The home court advantage is even greater in the second round of the NIT tournament, as over the last three years, hosts are 20-4 SU & 17-6-1 ATS.
- In the past three years, there hasn’t even once been a home underdog in the NIT tournament. Interestingly though, home favorites of 3-points or less are just 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS. UNDER the total is also 7-2 in those games.
- Double-digit home favorites haven’t been a good bet either in the NIT since ’07, going 18-2 SU but 9-11 ATS.
- The best line range in which to back home favorites in the NIT is at -3.5 to -9.5 points, 35-19-1 ATS over the last three years, including 12-4 ATS a year ago.
- The “B” level conferences (Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Conference USA, WAC, Atlantic 10) have shown some distinct tendencies of late based upon the opponent they’ve faced. When on the road at “A”-conference teams, they are just 3-22 SU & 7-18 ATS over the L3 years of NIT action. When hosting “A” teams, they are 8-3 SU & 6-5 ATS. In matchups between two “B” teams, the visitor is a perfect 6-0 ATS. When hosting a lesser conference school, the “B” teams are a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS.
- Big 12 teams are just 4-10 ATS in the L3 years of NIT play. Missouri Valley teams are 3-9 ATS. Big Ten teams are 10-4 ATS.
- The semifinals and finals of the NIT are played in a neutral environment at MSG. Over the last three years, favorites in these games are just 3-6 SU & ATS, with no line exceeding 5-points.
CBB: Florida at Mississippi (12:00 PM ET, CBS)2010-02-19With just a week or two left in regular season action on the collegiate hardwood, the stakes are high. In a key early game on CBS, Florida and Mississippi try to get up and off the “bubble” with a key tournament resume building win. The Rebels have the advantage of playing at home and is typically tough to beat at Oxford. Get more on this and all of Saturday’s games on the Sportsbook.com GAME MATCHUPS page.
The Gators (18-8, 11-10 ATS) are not going to win SEC East, thus the next order of business is setting the wheels into motion of securing a NCAA Tournament berth. One of the main things the committee likes is high caliber road wins. Florida (4-3 and 4-2 ATS as true visitors) will have three chances before the SEC tourney to boost its status and lately the Gators have not helped themselves losing three of their previous six contests. Improved defense and rebounding are tantamount and coach Billy Donovan has taken some of the ball-handling duties away from guard Erving Walker, after he suffered a volume of turnovers. Florida has to control pace since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game and Missippi is certainly capable of reaching that number here.
Ole Miss (17-8, 12-8-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, basically dependant on what they can accomplish outside the paint. Led by Chris Warren, the Rebels are seeking school’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2002, however Mississippi will probably have to win out to have a chance since they have lost four of five (1-3-1 ATS). In the SEC, any win is a good win and to get one here, coach Andy Kennedy needs more from forward DeAundre Cranston, as opponents are stretching defense further out, not believing Mississippi can score consistently near the basket. Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with 60-80 win percentage over the last three seasons.
These teams have split the last six in Oxford with Florida 5-1 ATS. The StatFox Power Line shows Mississippi by 5. How does that compare to the latest LIVE ODDS on Sportsbook.com?
CBB: Wisconsin at Michigan (4:00 PM ET, CBS)2010-02-09Wisconsin made a BIG statement in the BIG TEN’s BIG game this week by dominating Michigan State on the home court. On Saturday, the Badgers take to the road wit a destination of Ann Arbor, home of the Michigan Wolverines. Wisky has experienced a ton of success in recent years vs. the Wolverines but had to rally from a large deficit at home a few weeks ago to escape an upset attempt by Michigan. Can the hosts finish the job this time around? See where your fellow bettors are placing their trust on the BETTING TRENDS page.
Not exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me), but yet they continue to surprise. Senior Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however its been sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil that have raised their level of play most in Leuer’s absence. If and when he returns in a few weeks, the Badgers could be a very dangerous team. Wisky is on a run of 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.
To their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with an 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own expectations. The Wolverines believed they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything, Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late on many occasions. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game. That could be a weak spot for this matchup.
The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 head-to-head meetings with Michigan, boasting a 6-4 ATS mark. The StatFox Power Rating, Outplay Factor Rating, and Forecaster all suggest Wisconsin should win by about 3 points.