Maui champ Arizona avoids the 'rocky start' Sean Miller feared
2014-11-28
"Realistically, we're not that good of team right now," Miller said. "We're nowhere near where we [were] a year ago at this time. I can see us getting off to a rocky start in the month of November."
Arizona indeed hasn't bolted from the starting blocks as fast as fellow top-five teams Kentucky, Duke and Wisconsin have this season, but the Wildcats are starting to show signs that they may yet close the gap. They showcased stifling defense, an emerging freshman star and a knack for getting to the free throw line Wednesday night in the Maui Invitational title game, continuing their recent domination of San Diego State with a tense 61-59 victory over the 15th-ranked Aztecs.
That Arizona managed to thwart San Diego State's latest upset bid is impressive because the Aztecs had plenty of motivation. San Diego State had hoped to avenge three previous narrow losses to the Wildcats, one in the Sweet 16 last March in Anaheim, one in the regular season in San Diego last November and one in the finals of the Diamondhead Classic in Dec. 2012.
It's unlikely Arizona would beaten San Diego State a fourth time in a row if it didn't produce its best defensive stretch of the season during the final 10 minutes of Wednesday night's game. The previously unbeaten Aztecs took a 48-47 lead on an Angelo Chol basket midway through the second half but eventually ran out of ways to generate offense against the Wildcats, missing nine of their next 10 shots and scoring only three points in nine minutes.
Such a stifling stretch is a good sign for an Arizona team that surrendered an unusually high shooting percentage in a narrow victory over Kansas State in the Maui semifinals the night before. The Wildcats miss Nick Johnson's vocal leadership and Aaron Gordon's knack for defending multiple positions yet they still have the personnel to overwhelm opposing offenses in time, from an elite on-ball defender at point guard, to overwhelming size, strength and ball-hawking instincts at wing, to several capable interior defenders and rim protectors in the paint.
Where there are greater questions about Arizona is on offense because sometimes the Wildcats simply don't score as easily as other top teams. Arizona shot just 36.5 percent from the field against the formidable San Diego State defense and only managed 61 points because its guards turned turnovers into fast-break chances and got to the foul line 24 times.
In reality, the ability to turn defense into offense and to generate free throws may turn out to be the Wildcats' best offensive weapons this season. The T.J. McConnell 3-pointer that gave Arizona the lead for good with 7:39 to go was set up by a J.J. O'Brien Turnover. Rondae-Hollis Jefferson then gave Arizona some breathing room when he blocked a Dwayne Polee 3-pointer and raced out for a breakaway dunk that extended the lead to four.
That Arizona shot so many free throws was also no surprise considering the Wildcats average nearly 30 per game. While the downside of playing Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson together at wing is that neither can shoot consistently enough from the perimeter to space the floor, the upside is that both are big, strong wings who excel attacking the rim and getting to the foul line.
One of the biggest questions facing Arizona entering the season was who would fill Nick Johnson's role as the team's offensive catalyst and go-to scorer down the stretch in close games. There wasn't an obvious choice among the returning players since Hollis-Jefferson still lacks the ball handling skills and jump shot to make that transition and Brandon Ashley is ill-suited for the role as a pick-and-pop forward.
Maybe the most encouraging aspect of Wednesday night's victory was that highly touted freshman wing Stanley Johnston for the first time showed signs that he may yet emerge as Arizona's top scoring threat. Johnson delivered a season-high 18 points and 9 rebounds against the fearsome San Diego State defense, and while his shooting percentage was low, he was also fearless attacking the rim and getting to the foul line throughout the second half.
In many ways, Johnson symbolizes where Arizona is right now as a team flashes of greatness but still a work in progress.
Arizona still needs to become more consistent on defense and to develop an identity late in close games on offense. Nonetheless, the team Miller insisted was "nowhere near" where it needed to be three weeks ago is steadily getting closer.
The No. 3 seed Baylor Bears vs. the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils game will takes place on Sunday, March 28, 2010 tip off at 5:05 p.m. eastern time, televised on CBS. This final Elite 8 match up will decide the winner of the South Regional bracket in this year’s 2010 NCAA Tournament, and put the winner in an automatic spot in the NCAA 2010 Final Four.
Baylor will obviously have the edge in fan support on Sunday playing in their home state of Texas, but the Blue Devils have history on their side. Also, they have reached the Final Four in five of the eleven times they have entered the tourney as a No. 1 seed.
Baylor was a 5 point favorite at www.sportsbook.com, in the game and easily covered the spread in a 72 - 49 rout of the Gaels. The Baylor Bears held St. Mary’s to an embarrassing 17 points in the opening half and held an astonishing 46 - 17 lead at the half.
The Blue Devils also had an easy time in the Sweet 16 against the Purdue Boilermakers. Duke busted the Boilermakers 70 - 57 as an 8.5 point favorite. That improved the Duke Blue Devils to 3 - 0 against the spread in this year’s NCAA Tourney.
Coahs K’s team did it with defense, holding the Boilermakers to just 37 percent from the field and they only made 4 - 15 from behind the arc. Even though Duke played good defensively, the Boilermakers are not the same team it was before losing Robbie Hummel and had only three starters and five total players score in the game. The Blue Devils dominated the glass, grabbing 11 more offensive rebounds than the Boilermakers.
Duke doesn’t figure to be able to dominate the boards the same way against a Baylor team that is big up front and very athletic. The key to pulling off the upset for Baylor will be to keep Duke off the glass, and to hold Kyle Singler in check. When Singler isn’t scoring points, or when he’s taking a lot of shots to get his points, the Blue Devils are susceptible to being upset.
The Baylor Bears have a veteran bunch that packs an inside outside game with their guards LaceDarius Dunn, who scored 23 points against St. Mary's, and Tweety Carter, who also added 14 points and 3 - 6 for three point shots. On the inside playing either the forward or center position Ekpe Udoh, a junior who transferred from Michigan. Udoh's a beast of a player this season and has elevated his draft stock while helping the Baylor Bears out of the first round of this year’s NCAA Tourney. With a talented backcourt and a solid interior presence, Baylor will be a tough team to beat, Duke has their hands full.
www.sportsbook.com have the Duke Blue Devils 5 point favorites and the over / under at 140 points. I’m going for the upset with the Baylor Bears, they will play the inside outside type of game on Sunday and with their size and athleticism they will be too much for the Duke Blue Devils.
No. 5 Bulldogs will be playing the No. 1 seeded Orange this Thursday March 25, 2010 in Salt Lake City, Utah, tipoff will be 7:05 pm eastern time.
Syracuse
The Orange looked very good in their first games of the tournament. Syracuse destroyed Vermont by 23 points and in their next game they defeated Gonzaga by 22 points, something that should not have happened to a decent Gonzaga team. The MVP for the Orange men is Wes Johnson who did all the scoring, 31 points, 14 rebounds, and made 4 out of 6 three point shots. A close second to player of the game is Rautins who added an additional 24 points against the Zags. The Orange men held the Zags to 41.7 percent shooting and only gave up three 3 point shots out of the 21 shot attempts that were thrown up behind the arc by the Zags.
Syracuse averaged 81.6 points per game as well as 19.4 assists per game, second in the country, and shot at 51.7 percent. Don’t forget about their defense because they have only allowed 39.8 shooting percentage from opponents and have only let teams score an average of 66.5 points per game.
Butler
The Butler Bulldogs did not have quite an easy path as the Orange men had, but nonetheless they are in the same position playing for a spot in the Elite 8. In Butler’s first game they entered halftime losing, but turned it around to beat UTEP. In their second game of the weekend they faced a scrappy Murray State, which they had to dig deep to come out victorious. With Matt Howard on the bench in foul trouble for most of the game the Bulldogs had to go to a four guard lineup. Even though Butler won the game they need to address a couple issues before the play Syracuse, for example Murray State was 64.3 percent from the behind the arc.
The Butler Bulldogs averaged 69.8 points per game and also shot 45 percent from the floor, but were horrible at rebounding, ranking 285th in the nation on offensive boards. On defense the Bulldogs only allow their opponents an average of 59.8 points per game and 41.5 percent shooting.
Who and what to bet on?
At www.sportsbook.com the spread is currently in favor of Syracuse at 7.5 points. The Orange men are 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 tournament matchups, 5 and 1 against the spread in their last 6 neutral site games and 9 and 2 against the spread in their last 11 nonconference games. Butler on the other hand are 6 and 0 against the spread in their last 6 games as an underdog between 7 and 12.5 points, but they are also 2 and 8 against the spread in their last 10 neutral site games and 1 and 4 against the spread in their last 5 games while playing as underdogs at a neutral site.
Butler should have had an easy time with Murray State, granted they didn’t let them score a lot, but the game was still too close. When they play the Orange men this Thursday they will not be so lucky.
Syracuse -7.5